In Australia we bought 97,000 new cars per month or nearly 1.2M per year in 2016. According to the ABS only 219 were electrical. In Oslo, with Government Policy strongly supporting electric cars, 27% of new cars purchased last year were electric.
The next step is driverless, or autonomous, electrical vehicles. Have we considered what autonomous vehicles might mean for changes in car ownership, shifts in public transport options and their impact on the value of the family garage, or the value we place on the city or airport car park?
Historically in Sydney we have seen the body corporate in some older apartment blocks, with limited off street parking, buy a column of properties and install car stackers to provide more parking. The increase in the value of the individual apartments is significant.
The cost of parking at capital cities airports is high and a huge revenue earner for the operators. Last financial year Melbourne Airport reported $135.5 million in revenue from car parking, $79.9 million of which it pocketed as profit. Sydney Airport pocketed 74% profit on its car parking revenue; or $97.8M. Brisbane Airport pocketed 66% and Perth Airport 56% of car parking revenue as profit.
Looking forward when might electric driverless cars become the standard car for personal ownership? Audi, BMW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Nissan and Google all claim they will have driverless electric cars by 2020, or in three year’s time. By 2030 Uber claims it’s fleet will be completely driverless. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) predict that by 2040, only 23 years from now, that 75% of vehicles will be in autonomous cars.
We already have some of these features. Our family car has cruise control that automatically adjusts the speed of our car to the speed of the car in front. This changes the psychology of driving as there is no need to complete for the tarmac. The car is making the speed adjustments and my decision is which lane do I want to travel in; the one going the speed limit or the one going slower.
The Australian Government has invested $55M over ten years into a project to evaluate hard transport infrastructure, such as the METRO projects in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, versus the opportunity for soft transport using autonomous cars. This is exciting.
The usage of public transport in corridors with hard infrastructure is high, however many people do not work in CBDs or centres with viable public transport option. Are there options for fleets of driverless cars to provide commute services between suburbs and employment hubs at a reasonable cost? How accessible would these services need to be over 24 hours for a family to consider not owning a personal car? After all there are no penalty rates to be paid for the driver.
Will Australian Government policy drive adoption of these vehicles? Could our roads with public transport lanes like the Harbour Bridge or the Domain Tunnel, and transit lanes on the freeways be expanded to include autonomous vehicles? To be most effective in delivering their benefits do we need dedicated autonomous lanes?
The advantages of driverless cars are touted as fewer accidents, steadier driving patterns leading to better traffic flow and less congestion. Traffic congestion is already reported as one of the key problems for productivity loss in capital cities internationally. Increased mobility for the young, the elderly, the disabled. Could working Mums have their children transported to and from their sport, music and other activities in driverless cars while they are still in the office?
The other benefits of wide spread adoption are fewer cars are needed. Estimates are 6.8 cars can be removed for every autonomous car delivered. This might mean less roads or wider footpaths, changing our neighbourhoods.
These considerations give us a small insight into how our cities might change. However, what happens to us personally and our neighbours? Do we still own a car, or do we have an app to book and use Uber or Uber like vehicles as needed for the daily commute, shopping, entertainment, the children’s activities and any emergencies? Does it become so accessible that we ditch the second car, or even the family car?
Does parking at the family home may become a luxury rather than a necessity? What do future home owners do with these spaces? In apartments underground car parks may become storage areas, in homes they have more options: a retreat, a granny flat or storage. Do planning laws need to allow garages to be multi purposes now in anticipation of their changing role? Will having a car accommodation add any value to your real estate other than another room?
Author Rosemary Johnston, Client Experience, Forrester Cohen. www.forrestercohen.com.au If you would like more information or to continue the social commentary, please email rosemary@forrestercohen.com.au